By ’Tunde Adeparusi

Nigeria, widely known as Africa’s most populous country, also holds the reputation for being the largest economy on the entire continent. However, the beleaguered country faces a multifaceted crisis that has reached critical proportions. With the current trifecta of crisis: economic depression, acute hunger, and perversive insecurity, Nigeria may plunge into a serious humanitarian catastrophe with a ripple effect that could threaten regional stability and global peace. Therefore, as Nigeria looks ahead to what lies in store, there is a pressing question that demands attention: Can the Nation overcome the triple crisis and pave a path?

$1trn Economy: How achievable?

Nigeria’s economy has traditionally depended heavily on oil exports, rendering it susceptible to the volatility of global oil prices. The recent global downturn, exacerbated by COVID-19 pandemic, has exposed the fragility of this economic model. Despite being the largest economy in Africa, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been inconsistent, often failing to outpace population growth. This resulted in high unemployment rate, particularly among the youth, and widespread poverty.

Inflation, particularly food inflation, has soared, significantly eroding the purchasing power of the citizenry. The devaluation of the Naira, driven by a reduction in foreign exchange earnings from oil, has further aggravated the situation. Efforts by the previous administration to diversify the economy through initiatives like Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) have only yielded mixed results. However, the current administration through the office of the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Mr Wale Edun, has approved an emergency economic plan that is said to be implemented within the next six months. Hopefully, this might mitigate the current economic hardship and multifaceted crisis in the long run.

While there might have been some progress in sectors like agriculture and telecommunications, these have not been sufficient to offset the deep structural issues within the economy. The fact remains, Nigeria’s GDP growth has been sluggish, struggling to keep pace with population growth. For example, Nigeria’s economy grew only 0.8% in 2021 according to the World Bank. Albeit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s GDP growth to 3.3% in 2024, in line with its projections for Sub-Sahara Africa at 3.8% regional GDP growth, however, this is not sufficient to address the issues of poverty and unemployment.

Furthermore, the economic challenges have precipitated a hunger crisis of alarming proportions. Nigeria is home to one of the largest populations of the people facing food insecurity in the world. The United Nation clearly highlighted this fact in its report; more than 12 million Nigerians are facing acute food insecurity. This situation is most dire in the Northern region where the conflict with Boko Haram and other insurgent groups has disrupted agricultural production and displaced millions. In other words, the escalation of Boko Haram and bandit insurgency has caused many farmers to abandon their farmlands for fear of being attacked:

The scarcity of food is compounded by poor infrastructure, which impedes food distribution, as well as climate change, which has led to unpredictable weather patterns and reduced agricultural yields. It is of great importance to note that in rural areas, farmers face significant challenges, due to lack of access to modern farming techniques, seeds and fertilizers, further reducing productivity.

Moreover, insecurity is perhaps the biggest and most visible challenge Nigeria is faced with. The emergence and proliferation of Boko Haram in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, and clashes between herders and farmers across the middle Belt have created a tapestry of violence and instability in the polity. In the South, the Niger Delta remains volatile with sporadic attacks on oil infrastructure and ongoing tensions over resource control. The recent attacks by the locals on the military, in which 16 military personnel who were on a peace mission in Delta State lost their lives, is reflective of the volatile nature of insecurity that is prevalent in the oil-rich south-south region of the country.

According to reports, Boko Haram insurgency, which began in 2009, has led to more than 30,000 deaths and the displacement of over 2 million people! Apparently, the military efforts have not yielded any positive outcome, and despite the international support, the insurgent group continues to launch attacks against the locals and the security forces. The emergence of splinter factions like the dreaded Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP) has further complicated the security landscape.

Meanwhile, the most recent documented report, according to Premium Times, points to a more catastrophic development showing that over 4,500 Nigerians have been killed while approximately 7,000 kidnapped in the first year of the new administration of President Tinubu. This is indicative of a deteriorating socio-economic condition.

Although, desertification and population growth may have exacerbated some aspects of the security situation, vis-à-vis land disputes leading to significant loss of life and property, the government’s response has often been reactive rather than proactive, failing to address the root causes of these conflicts.

It is important to take to account the nature of the crises adumbrated above in that they are not isolated; they are interconnected, creating a vicious cycle. For instance, economic depression and hunger fuel social unrest and insecurity, while insecurity disrupts economic activities and exacerbates hunger. The displacement of populations due to violence leads to loss of livelihoods and increase dependency on humanitarian aid, which is often inadequate.

Moreover, the lack of economic opportunities, particularly for the youth, makes them susceptible to recruitment by insurgent groups and criminal gangs. The pervasive corruption and lack of accountability within the government and security forces further erode public trust and hinder effective responses to these crises. For example, in his most recent public statement, the current secretary to the government of the federation, Mr George Akume, blamed the prevalent insecurity in Nigeria on climate change.

One would have expected the government to demonstrate some level of willingness, in its commitment to its core constitutional responsibility of ensuring security of life and property, rather than employing escapism as a shield or a valid excuse for shedding its responsibility! No doubt, climate change could exacerbate regional insecurity, to some extent, but stating that categorically as the cause of insecurity in Nigeria is absurd.

However, addressing Nigeria’s crises requires a multifaceted and coordinated approach. Economic reforms must go beyond stabilization to include measures that promote inclusive growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. Investment in agriculture, infrastructure, and education is crucial to build a resilient economy.

The current spate of insecurity requires a comprehensive strategy that includes military, political, and social components. These are the essentials; strengthening the capacity of the security forces, improving intelligence, and fostering community-based conflict resolution mechanisms can help restore stability. Additionally, addressing the underlying causes of conflict, such as competition over resources, through sustainable development and environmental conservation, is critical.

Good governance and accountability are fundamental. Combating corruption, ensuring transparency, and building public trust in the state institutions can create a more conducive environment for addressing the current economic and security challenges.

’Tunde Adeparusi, a UK-based independent researcher in criminology, wrote in via [email protected]