Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022.

Mr Adeniran Adeyemi, the Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the  National Bureau of Statistics  (NBS), said this on Thursday during the inauguration  of the New Nigeria Labour force Survey (NLFS) in Abuja

Adeniran said that the drop in NLFS from 33.3 percent in the Fourth quarter 2020 to its present rate was based on change in methodology adopted and not government performance.

BRANDPOWER reports that the new NLFS unveiled a set of labour force indicators designed to provide unparalleled insights into the dynamics of the workforce in Nigeria.

The NLFS was conducted by the NBS in collaboration with the World Bank (WB) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in response to the labour market dynamics.

Adeniran said “let me at this point clearly state that this methodology review has nothing to do with whitewashing the image of any government or political party.

“This process is routine for any responsible statistical office, and we have no reason to continue to ignore the adoption of new methods, when the evidence clearly indicates the need for it.

“As a national statistical office, our responsibility is to provide government and all users with accurate data for evidence-based decision making, adhering to the highest possible standards, and our commitment in this regard is unwavering.”

This new methodology has however come under intense criticism.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) dismissed the new methodology employed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in determining the level of unemployment and underemployment in Nigeria, describing it as “an act deliberately antithetical to Nigeria’s lived reality.”

CSJ’s statement comes in response to the NBS’s release of its latest Nigeria Labour Force Statistics (NLFS) Report, which showed that unemployment in Nigeria fell from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2023. CSJ rejected the NBS’s findings, arguing that they are not supported by the increasing unemployment in Nigeria since the last report in 2020 which reported 33.3% unemployment rate in Nigeria. Since 2020, Nigeria’s economic challenges have increased with galloping inflation, factory closures, rural dwellers who have been prevented by insecurity from planting and harvesting and a public sector with a moratorium on new recruitments.

“The whole basis of a job report is to help the government to determine whether its plans, policies and laws geared at reducing unemployment are achieving the desired milestones” said Eze Onyekpere, lead director of CSJ. “What is the point of a job report that tells the government that more Nigerians are employed when it is a clear and notorious fact that unemployment is increasing?”

“The NBS is counting people who are working for at least one hour in a week or who are self-employed in low-productivity activities as ‘employed,’” said Onyekpere. “This is not an accurate reflection of the reality of the Nigerian labor market.” “Simply to satisfy a fad, it is a waste of tax payers money to produce a report that adds no value to the Nigerian people and their economy”. CSJ believes that these statistics do not in any way reflect the prevailing economic challenges experienced by Nigerians, especially in recent times.

Before today’s report, Nigeria’s last unemployment data was released in the fourth quarter of 2020, leaving a substantial gap in our understanding of the employment situation. CSJ previously emphasized the urgency for the NBS to provide up-to-date employment data for the years 2021 and 2022.

However, the NBS boss said the new method which indicates that not less than 73 per cent of Nigerians are engaged in one form of work, recognises all forms of engagements from which individuals earn income.

He said using the new ILO definition, the survey showed that the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2022 stood at 5.3 per cent and 4.1 per cent for the first quarter of 2023.

“This figure aligns perfectly with neighbouring countries around Nigeria. Ghana (3.9per cent), Niger (0.5 per cent), Chad (1.4per cent), Cameroon (4.0per cent), Togo (4.1per cent), Benin Republic (1.7per cent) amongst others.

“In responding to the shifting global landscape and the ever-changing data ecosystem, it is imperative for us to continuously adapt the way in which we collect and analyse data.

“This is to ensure that we are producing data that reflects reality and the experiences of Nigerians.

“These changes also includes a revision to the design and methodology applied in the conduct of the actual survey.

“Which is the survey that produces commonly known headline Unemployment and Underemployment rates, as well as other labour market indicators that guide policymakers, researchers, and other users,” he said.

According to him, the results indicates a scarcity of Wage-employment, as the share of those employed in Wage-employment during the reference quarters was 13.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 11.8 per cent in Q1 2023.

Adeniran said that the working age population which was defined previously as persons aged 15-64,  is now defined as persons aged 15 and above.

He said this was a very important change particularly in the Nigerian context as it recognises the labour contributions of persons above the age of 64  which was not done previously.

The NBS boss said the unemployed appeared to be the most controversial amongst the changes announced under the review.

According to him, the new standard defines the unemployed as persons within the Labour force, who within the reference period did not work for pay or profit for a minimum of 1 hour.

“In the real sense, nobody works 1 hour a week and then sits down and does nothing else when there are opportunities for more hours of work.

“The statistics show that only 7.1 per cent of those working, work between 1 – 19 hours per week. So, 1 hour is just a benchmark and nothing more than that,” he said.

The survey revealed that about three quarters of Nigerians in the working age population, 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023 were engaged in some form of work for pay or profit in the quarters under review.

CSJ recognizes that a robust job report serves as a crucial tool for governmental planning and policy evaluation. However, the reported unemployment rate of 4.1% in the NLFS raises serious concerns about the relevance and accuracy of the methodology and the relevance of the findings to the lived experiences of Nigerians.

“This reported rate is incongruent with the economic challenges faced by a significant percentage of the population. “We call on the NBS to reconsider its methodology and ensure that it accurately captures the full spectrum of employment challenges faced by Nigerians. It is essential that job reports reflect the realities and provide an honest assessment of the economic landscape. Only through accurate data can the government develop effective strategies that deliver on its promises and address the pressing issues facing our nation,” Onyekpere said.

CSJ also called on the government to ignore the report, take steps to create more decent jobs and to improve the livelihoods of Nigerians.

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Earlier, the World Bank’s Country Director, Shubham Chaudhuri pledged the continued support of the bank to ensure a robust, regular national LFS data for the country.

Chaudhuri said a reliable data provided the government with knowledge about the nation’s welfare and ensured the right intervention and programs needed to address it’s challenges.

The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Bagudu, said data was key to national planning and development.

According to Bagudu, President Bola Tinubu believes in reliable data for planning and will support anything that will lead to production of appropriate data.

“To create jobs for youths, we need this kind of data, a lot needs to be done to address the high rate of unemployment in the country. The President is desirous of reducing unemployment.

“Nigeria is one of the countries with absorptive capacity,  so what we need is to provide better environment and more incentives,” he said.

While commending efforts of NBS and its partners in revising the methodology,  Bagudu said the ministry would from 2024 use of the revised data more practically.

Meanwhile, the Acting CBN Governor, Mohammed Tumala said labour statistics was one of the most important inputs to economic policy and business decisions.

Tumula said labour was the most important of the factors of production and determined both the quantity and quality of utility of other factors.

While commending efforts of the NBS,  he stressed the need for synergy with communication experts to ensure proper linkage and dissemination of data to the public.

Similarly, Prof. Mike Obadan, Non Executive Director and member MPC, CBN also reiterated the need for NBS to ensure robust strategy for communicating its survey findings to the public in simple language.