Nigeria is to become the 25th largest economy in the world by 2028, second only to Egypt in Africa. This will firmly consolidate the country’s place as the largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 2013 Centre for Economic and Business Research’s (CEBR) World Economic League Table has revealed.
The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to hit $927 billion, $655 billion higher than the current estimate of $272 billion. And with the on-the-pipeline rebasing plans by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the figure is expected to reach $405 billion in January 2014, overtaking South Africa, which is currently the largest African economy, with an estimated GDP of $370 billion.
Incidentally, South Africa does not have any place in this table that contains 30 prospective economic powerhouses by 2028. On the other hand, Nigeria, currently 36th on the table, is not only expected to rank 25th on this chart, but is also tipped to clearly topple South Africa, currently 33rd, by 2020.
‘’Nigeria is predicted to overtake South Africa as Sub Saharan Africa’s largest economy in 2020 and to rise from 36th position in the league table in 2013 to 25th in 2028,’’ said the report, released on Friday December 27.
The chart shows Nigeria being ranked among economic hubs of the world, such as the United States of America, China, Japan and Germany, among others. This feat is attributed to the growing Nigerian population, which provides a large consumer and market base.
‘’Favourable demographics are the main driving force. The main risk is political instability and violence which will deter investment,’’ the report further said.
This report further reveals that China will overtake the USA as the largest economy in the world. India and Japan will become third and fourth powerhouses, while Brazil, formerly mocked as economy of the future, will be fifth. On the other hand, Egypt will become 22nd with an estimated GDP of $1,069 trillion, making it the largest economy in Africa.
It is also revealed that Nigeria will overtake Sweden, which is 26th on the chart; Argentina, which is 29th, as well as the Netherlands, which is the last in the ladder, with an estimated GDP of $888 billion. The report says several variables informed its position.
‘’Significant developments which have affected predictions this year include the emerging market currency sell-off in mid-2013, the revised views about the future of commodity prices, as well as substantially revised views about the future of energy prices,’’ the report said.
A country by country outlook shows that even though the US will relinquish its position to China, it will still remain the world’s most successful economy, owing to cheap energy and innovation. On the other hand, Abenomics policy of printing money is likely to be successful in Japan but a weaker Yen will bring the country’s position down in money GDP terms.
‘’The position is forecast to continue to deteriorate to 38% place by 2028, by which time the Nigerian economy is likely to be about a third larger and by then, by far the largest sub-Saharan African economy,’’ said the report.