2021 global oil demand reached 5.7 mb/d, less than estimated 96.4 mb/d – OPEC

Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says global oil demand growth in 2021 stands at 5.7 million barrels per day.

According to OPEC, this reflects slower-than-anticipated demand from China and India in the third quarter of 2021 (3Q21).

On Wednesday, Mohammad Barkindo, OPEC secretary-general, disclosed this in his remark at the 182nd OPEC video conference.

Mr Barkindo noted that global oil demand was estimated to reach 96.4 mb/d in 2021, while total world demand in 2022 was estimated to reach 100.6 mb/d, around 0.56 mb/d above 2019 levels.

“Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2021, to average 63.6 mb/d. The main growth drivers of 2021 are Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil and Guyana. The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d. Russia and the U.S. contribute increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively,” explained Mr Barkindo.

He added, “Turning to stocks, Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commercial stocks stand at 2,773 mb, which is 174 mb below the 2015-2019 average with crude accounting for 148 mb and products 26 mb of this. In terms of days of forward cover, he disclosed that OECD commercial stocks in October stood at 61.6 days, 0.7 days lower than the average of 2015-2019.

Moreover, he underscored the need to consider the market implications of last week’s announcement of the possible coordinated release of 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of several consuming countries.

He noted that the implications of such uncertainties for excess supply in the first to the second quarter of 2022 (1Q-2Q2022) should be carefully monitored.

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He listed the future of monetary policies, inflationary pressures, possible reintroduction of lockdowns, vaccine uptake rates, vaccine resistance of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, and supply-chain bottlenecks as some uncertainties clouding the picture.

These uncertainties and implications on the global oil demand and supply balance are analysed in a scenario analysis as reflected in the Economic Commission Board (ECB) report.

In an overview of market developments, as discussed at the 136th Meeting of the ECB, he recalled that over 55 per cent of the global population had received at least one vaccine against the coronavirus.